Abstract: In this paper, a model created to determine the likelihood of an individual to use a given substance takes into account the race, education level, and income of an individual. Initially environment was intended to be included in the model, but it was not able to effectively integrated into the model. For the three chosen factors, data was collected from various sources for how each one correlates with the use of nicotine, alcohol, marijuana, and un-prescribed opioids. The followings were assumed: First, race, income, and education levels are the only variables that affect substance abuse tendencies, and there is no correlation between the variables. Education is the most important factor, followed by income, and lastly race. The justification for this comes from our research. Second, it is assumed the high school used in the example model of Question 2 follows the demographic averages of the city of Los Angeles. Los Angeles was used because of its high socioeconomic diversity, ethnic diversity, and regional diversity within the city. Lastly, it is assumed that gender plays a negligible role in the probability of substance abuse, which has been confirmed by the National Institute of Health in many circumstances.
Introduction: Using the model to predict the amount of substance abuse in a senior class of 300 located in a high school in Los Angeles, California. The race distribution in Los Angeles is 47.7% latino, 27.8% white, 13.5% Asian, and 8.3% African American. We are assuming that this distribution holds true for the senior class. All of the students in the sample would fall under the “Some High School” education level. Roughly, the income distribution in Los Angeles for the brackets we chose is 40%, 8%, 12%, 10%, and 30%. To apply these statistics to the class of 300, each student is randomly assigned a race and income, and they all have the same education level. Race and income are not completely independent of each other, but for this model we assume there are no correlations.
To determine what drugs each kid would use, each individual would be subjected to a probability test from each of his demographic percentages. For example, all Asian students in the high school with an income range of $48,000-$60,000 would have a 22.35% chance of using nicotine (the weighted mean of the students’ race, education level, and income percentages). This number is calculated from the code we created that can be found in the appendix. This process would be completed for each unique combination of demographics, and then the number of students for each unique demographic would be multiplied by each unique percentage (more information about how we calculate can be found below). If there were 10 Asian kids with an income range of $48,000-$60,000 then the model predicts (.2235 x 10) that approximately 2 kids from that specific demographic would use nicotine. The sum of all of these different values from all of the unique demographics would give the total number of kids in the school using nicotine. The same process would then be redone using the data from the three other drugs.
References
[1] Truth Initiative. (2016, August 10). The economics of tobacco: What education and income tell us about smoking. Retrieved from https://truthinitiative.org/news/economics-tobacco- what-education-and-income-tell-us-about-smoking
[2] Lopez. “The Risks of Alcohol, Marijuana, and Other Drugs, Explained.” Vox.com, Vox Media, 25 Feb. 2015, www.vox.com/2015/2/25/8104917/drug-dangers-marijuana-alcohol.
[3] Department of Health & Human Services. “Smoking - the Financial Cost.” Better Health Channel, Department of Health & Human Services, 30 Nov. 2014, www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/health/healthyliving/smoking-the-financial-cost.
[4] Stewart, Ian. “Report: Americans Are Now More Likely To Die Of An Opioid Overdose Than On The Road.” NPR, NPR, 14 Jan. 2019, www.npr.org/2019/01/14/684695273/report-americans-are-now-more-likely-to-die-of-an-opioid-overdose-than-on-the-ro.
[5] “The E-Cig Quandary.” The Nutrition Source, 18 Aug. 2016, www.hsph.harvard.edu/magazine/magazine_article/the-e-cig-quandary/.
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